英国“脱欧”公投结果出来之后，德法意等六国外长25日在柏林会晤并发表联合声明，要求英国尽早启动《里斯本条约》第50条规定的脱欧程序。德国总理默克尔28日也首次打破沉默，她说任何脱离欧盟大家庭的成员，都不能在放弃责任的同时还享有特权。正如英国人自豪于其“复杂而混沌”，德国人是“联邦式”大欧洲的支持者。在本期观点中，欧洲商学院（EBS）会计与金融系讲席教授，浙江大学互联网金融研究院CIFI中心学术委员会委员Ulrich
Hommel理性分析了英国“脱欧”以后种种可能的结局，总之一句话——“公投非儿戏，退出请谨慎”。

Can there be an EXIT from BREXIT? 

英国脱欧有退路吗？

Last week has been full of sobering moments for the United Kingdom and the rest of the European Union (EU). Everybody has gotten it wrong in the end and failed to see the BREXIT majority on the horizon – political pundits, betting agencies, so-called financial market experts and even the wisdom of the crowd as reflected by prediction market quotations. 

上周以来，整个英国乃至欧盟都沉浸在一种黯淡的气氛中。所有人都猜错了—— “脱欧派”取得最终的胜利。政治评论家、博彩公司，还有那些金融市场专家，甚至是预测市场行情所反映出来的群体智慧都没有预料到这个结果。

The outcome was seemingly triggered by emotions rather than a rational reflection of the electorate. It represents more the red-carding of the political establishment in Westminster and Brussels than a balanced evaluation of the pros and cons of BREXIT. It has been pivotally influenced by economically disadvantaged people in England, many of whom no longer active members of the country’s workforce. 

这显然反映了某种情绪，而非选民理性选择的结果。这是威斯敏斯特和布鲁塞尔政治体制失效的表现，而不是对于“脱欧”利弊全面衡量后的结果。英格兰地区的低收入群体在这其中起到了关键作用，而他们中很多人并不是这个国家目前的活跃劳动力。

6月25日德国《图片报》封面标题"哎哟！——欧洲的黑暗日"

Reflecting on the way forward requires anunderstanding of what brought about these unhappy circumstances:

如果要想清楚未来的方向，我们必须先弄明白是什么导致了目前的状况：

· The EU has originally been founded to ensure peace and stability after two devastating World Wars. It is by design much more than just a free-trade zone or an economic club. The British have from the beginning been lackluster supporters of the European project and would have probably been more satisfied with the Single Market minus the free movement of EU citizens. Political rhetoric in the UK has always emphasized separateness more than commonalities, in part to deflect criticisms of the electorate that should have been better placed at the doorstep of Westminster. 

· 欧盟成立的最初目的是为了保证两次世界大战后这一地区的和平与稳定，而不仅是一个简单的自贸区或经济俱乐部。英国人从一开始就不是这项“大欧洲”计划的积极支持者，他们更乐意接受“欧洲单一市场”，而不愿意看到欧盟内成员国居民的自由流动。而英国的政治话语向来更强调“区分”而非“共性”，这部分是为了抵消选民的批评，这些选民的诉求本该被政府更好地处理。

· The BREXIT decision is hitting the EU during a very challenging time period. The 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis have fostered the erosion of the social welfare state and, with it, the rise of political discontent. Extremist parties have appeared on the scene in almost every EU country and are now using the refugee crisis to push ahead with their nationalistic agendas. The design flaws of the Euro are dividing the common currency area in winners and losers. While German companies find the Euro exchange rates very attractive, Southern European countries are struggling to stay in business with a currency thatmakes their exports excessively expensive on world markets.

· “脱欧”所打击的是一个处境艰难的欧盟。2008年金融危机之后，随之而来的政府主权债务危机进一步侵蚀了社会福利国家的基础，政治上的不满情绪日益高涨。几乎所有欧盟国家都涌现出极端主义政党，他们正在利用难民危机来推进自己的民族主义主张。欧元的设计缺陷在欧元区国家内部分化出了“赢家”和“输家”——德国公司认为欧元的汇率非常有竞争力，南欧国家却因其出口价格大大高于国际市场而在欧元区内苦苦挣扎。

欧盟成员GDP及预算贡献对比

In order to appreciate the political ramifications of BREXIT, it is important to understand the mechanism for terminating EU membership. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty requires the UK toformally initiate exit proceedings, which will then start the clock for completing these negotiations within the next two years. It is a point of noreturn and Britain will be “out” after two years independent of whatever agreements have been reached by then. Hence, the UK will need to put itself in a very problematic spot strategically:

为了更好地理解英国脱欧的政治后果，我们首先需要了解欧盟的成员资格是如何终止的。《里斯本条约》第50条要求成员国首先正式启动退出程序，其后的谈判程序必须在接下来的两年内完成。一旦开始就不可逆转，两年期限一到不论谈判进行到什么程度，英国都必须退出。接下来，英国人的处境将充满不确定性：

· The UK can be forced to firstnegotiate the exit route before its new status via the EU will be determined.

· 英国可能会被要求在与欧盟的新关系确立之前先行启动退出谈判程序。

· Access to the Single Marketwill require accepting EU conditions, which actually triggered the BREXIT votein the first place, but are non-negotiable for a number of EU countries.

· 要想进入“欧洲单一市场”就必须成为欧盟成员，这是引发英国公投的导火索，而这对很多欧盟国家来说是不可协商的条件。

· All international agreements coveringthe relationship of the UK with other countries under the umbrella of the EUwill be null and void with the termination of EU membership and therefore needto be renegotiated.

· 脱欧之后，在欧盟框架下英国所取得的与欧盟外国家的所有国际协议都将失效，需要重新谈判。

· Agreeing on a new status forthe UK via the EU requires unanimity, i.e. these arrangements can potentially be vetoed by any of the EU member states.

· 与欧盟协商达成新关系需要成员国一致同意，而这些结果很有可能被某一个成员国否决。

Unless the unexpected happens and the UK decidesto avert BREXIT with a second referendum, we will be facing an extended period of instability and volatility that can potentially even threaten the survival of the Euro and the EU. 

除非英国决定二次公投推翻之前决定，我们将面临很长一段时间的动荡和不稳定，这对欧元和欧盟来说都十分不利。

· The UK is facing a serious complexity problem. Too many issues will be in flux at the same time and it is difficult to see that all of them can be properly managed at the same time. The UK can also be cornered to accept the unacceptable and enter into an association with most of the obligations of EU membership and none of the privileges. 

· 英国面临的情况复杂。许多问题同时涌现，将很难面面俱到。一个可能性就是，英国将被迫接受一些条款，使其实际履行欧盟成员国义务却又失去以往的特权。

· The voting behavior of more and more EU countries has in recent years been guided by narrowly defined economic rents rather than what is good for the community as a whole. These countries will very quickly arrive at the viewpoint that an extended period of uncertainty or denying the UK certain privileges (such as the EU passport for UK-based banks) can translate into economic benefits for themselves. 

· 近年来越来越多欧盟国家的投票行为仅考虑经济租而不是社会全体利益。在此情况下，很快这些国家就会认为延长英国的不确定期或是拒绝给予其某些特权（比如给英国银行颁发欧盟护照）对自己有利。

· The potential cross-border movement of assets can even be the last straw that drives the UK apart with Scotland and potentially also Northern Ireland leaving the UK. It would give these countries a golden parachute for their UK exit and the 27 EU countries would probably welcome them with open arms.

· 有关跨境资产转移的问题很有可能会成为促成苏格兰脱离英国的最后一根稻草，北爱尔兰也会效仿。这给了他们一个极好离开英国的理由和时机，而欧盟的27个国家将张开双臂热情欢迎他们。

All this will be played out against the backdrop of the EU’s political elite struggling to agree on the way ahead. Anything from “now really speeding up European unification” to moving in just the opposite direction are on offer. One thing is however clear, BREXIT and its aftermath are an example of political irrationality that will impose significant costs on investors and citizens. Clear beneficiaries are hedge funds that always profit from periods of heightened volatility.

所有这一切的前提是欧盟的政治精英们首先能够达成一致。从“加速欧洲一体化”到其反面的任何决定都有可能。无论如何，有一件事是肯定的，脱欧及其余波是一种政治不理性的表现，投资人和普通公民付出的代价尤为巨大。从中明确受益的是对冲基金，只有它们总是在这种高度波动时期获利。

学者名片

乌尔里希·霍梅尔教授(Prof. Ulrich Hommel)，浙江大学互联网金融研究院CIFI中心学术委员会委员。现任欧洲商学院会计与金融系的讲席教授，主讲公司理财以及高等教育财务等课程，同时也是战略金融研究所的主任。此外，霍梅尔教授曾于考文纽斯大学工商管理学院，斯德哥尔摩大学商学院，密歇根大学斯蒂芬·M·罗斯商学院，普渡大学克兰纳特管理学院和波尔多商学院有过访问与兼职经历。

研究兴趣：公司风险管理，私有企业融资管理、风险管理、高等教育机构及商学院的重组改革

策划编译：施嘉